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Croatia v Spain: What the stats say ahead Euro 2020 showdown

Croatia last faced Spain in any competition during the 2018-19 UEFA Nations League. While the Croatians won the most recent of those two meetings (3-2 in November 2018), they lost the other 6-0 in September 2018, a result that remains their heaviest ever defeat in international football.

 

This will be Croatia and Spain’s third major tournament meeting, with both previous such clashes coming in European Championship group stages. Both sides won once each: Spain in 2012 and Croatia in 2016.

After winning EURO 2008, the 2010 World Cup and EURO 2012, Spain have since been eliminated from both of their last two major tournament knockout round matches (World Cup/EUROs): the last 16 stages of EURO 2016 (v Italy) and the 2018 World Cup (v Russia). Spain last suffered elimination in three consecutive such knockout stage participations when doing so across the 1994 World Cup, EURO 1996 and EURO 2000.

In what is their sixth European Championship tournament, Croatia have made it through to the knockout stages for a fourth time. However, they have failed to progress beyond the first knockout game on each of the previous three occasions (quarter-final in 1996 and 2008 and last 16 in 2016).

Spain boasted a higher Expected Goals (xG) total than any other side in the EURO 2020 group stage (8.8), although only Scotland (3 – 1 goal from 4 xG) underperformed their xG by a higher total than the Spaniards (2.8 – 6 goals from 8.8 xG). Indeed, the two players who underperformed most based on xG in the group stage were Spanish – Gerard Moreno (0 goals from 2.1 xG) and Álvaro Morata (1 goal from 2.9 xG).

Since the start of the 2018 World Cup, Croatia have failed to score in just one of their 10 games at major tournaments (EUROs and World Cup), netting 18 goals in total from an Expected Goals tally (xG) of 13.6 (netting 4.4 goals more than expected); indeed, last time out versus Scotland, Croatia scored three goals from an xG of 1.0 (netting 2 goals more than expected) – the highest positive differential in a game in the EURO 2020 group stage, and the highest at all in the competition since France scored five against Iceland in the quarter-final at EURO 2016 from an xG of 1.8 (netting 3.2 goals more than expected).

Spain forced more pressed sequences (sequences where the opposition has three or fewer passes and the sequence ends within 40 metres of their own goal) than any other side during the EURO 2020 group stages (60), while their average of 8 passes allowed per defensive action was the lowest by any side in the round.

Ivan Perisic has been directly involved in six goals in his last five appearances at major tournaments for Croatia (4 goals, 2 assists). His goal against Scotland last time out moved him level with Davor Suker for most goals (9) at major tournaments for Croatia (EURO and World Cup).

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All six of Spain’s goals in the EURO 2020 group stage were scored by different players, including two own goals. Indeed, Spain were the highest scoring side in the round not to see a player score more than once.

Last time out against Scotland, Luka Modric became the oldest player to score for Croatia at the EUROs (35 years & 286 days), while he also holds the record as the youngest goalscorer for his nation in the competition (22 years & 73 days versus Austria in 2008) – should he score in this game (aged 35 years & 292 days), he would become the second-oldest player in European Championship history to score in consecutive appearances in the competition, after Cristiano Ronaldo.

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