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Chelsea likely to miss out on Champions League qualification

Manchester City have a 99% chance of winning the Premier League, but the race to finish in second, third and fourth, and get into the Champions League, is a lot closer.

Leicester City’s loss to Arsenal on Sunday, followed by Manchester United’s draw with Chelsea, left City 12 points clear of their local rivals and another point ahead of Brendan Rodgers’ side.

With only 12 games to go of the season, and with City currently on a 14 game winning streak in the league, it looks almost impossible for anyone to catch them.

The real battle is taking place below Pep Guardiola’s team, as their rivals battle it out to finish in the top four and qualify for Europe’s top competition.

According to stats experts FiveThirtyEight, it’s United, Liverpool and Leicester who are most likely to finish inside the top four, with City, whilst Chelsea aren’t too far behind.

How the season is most likely to play out. Image: FiveThirtyEight
How the season is most likely to play out. Image: FiveThirtyEight

United’s draw with Chelsea left them six points above their rivals and it allowed Liverpool to close their gap on the current top four.

The reigning Premier League champions beat Sheffield United on Sunday evening to move within two points of fourth place West Ham United, who had lost to City on Saturday.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have an appalling record against the rest of the ‘big six’ and play rivals City just next week.

It’s going to be so close when it comes to the top four though that the stats suggest Leicester and Chelsea will finish level on points.

Chelsea and United played out a pretty unspectacular 0-0 draw. Image: PA Images
Chelsea and United played out a pretty unspectacular 0-0 draw. Image: PA Images

At the bottom of the table things have started to heat up, with Fulham’s recent form putting pressure on those above them, and even West Brom picking up five points from their past three games.

However the stats gurus suggest that the great comeback isn’t on for either Scott Parker or Sam Allardyce and both will still go down.

It is quite close for the Cottagers at least, with the west London side currently predicted to finish just one point behind Newcastle United.

Read Also:Chelsea boss tells Abraham: Fight for your place in the first team!

The relegation battle. Image: FiveThirtyEight
The relegation battle. Image: FiveThirtyEight

Who do you think will finish in the top four?

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